2026 is shaping up to be the year the video advertising industry moves beyond accepting fragmented measurement. Between the midterm political spending crunch, the convergence of linear and streaming, and growing pressure from brands to deliver real business outcomes, the cracks in today’s system are becoming impossible to ignore.

Some of the most significant disruption will unfold across four areas: local broadcast; national broadcast and cable; streaming and CTV; and the agencies and brands trying to make sense of it all.

Local Broadcast’s Perfect Storm

In 2026, local broadcasting is expected to enter one of its most disruptive moments in decades. With $5B+ in political advertising flooding into local broadcasts and another $3B surging into CTV, largely crammed into Q3 and Q4, many non-political advertisers will face a true inventory crisis. Traditional guarantees alone are unlikely to be enough anymore.

This pressure will push many local broadcasters to modernize how they sell. Success will favor stations that prove real business impact through purchase intent, foot traffic, digital behaviors, and outcome-based guarantees, rather than political dollars. As streaming continues to grow, GRP-based selling will continue to erode and local news will need to modernize fragmented measurement.

The shift to local streaming creates unique opportunities. Auto dealers will begin to see late-news placements tied to showroom visits. Retailers will increasingly connect sponsorships to store traffic. In 2026, broadcasters who embrace performance-driven selling will be better positioned to retain and grow core advertisers, while those relying on reach alone risk losing budgets to digital and retail competitors.

National Broadcast and Cable Reinvent Under Pressure

National broadcast and cable aren’t dying, they’re being reshaped by accountability. In 2026, linear TV will shift from broad reach to performance-based primetime, with advertisers paying premiums primarily when content delivers measurable outcomes. Live sports and news will remain linear’s irreplaceable anchors, with performance playing a growing role in how everything else is evaluated.

Cable providers that successfully unify linear and streaming will be better positioned to thrive, creating seamless buying and measurement experiences across platforms. Others will face mounting pressure to survive the transition. Some major providers may begin to sunset linear feeds entirely as economics tighten.

By the 2026-2027 upfronts, outcome guarantees will no longer be experimental. A meaningful share, potentially as much as a quarter of broadcast and cable commitments, will include outcome guarantees, rewarding networks that prove business impact and leaving reach-only sellers behind.

Streaming Hits Its Measurement Breaking Point

Streaming’s rapid growth has exposed a fundamental flaw: fragmented measurement. 2026 will mark a measurement breaking point for streaming, driving a shift toward independent, standardized verification as agencies tire of incompatible platform data. The streamers that resist risk losing budgets to those embracing transparency.

At the same time, CTV will continue to bifurcate. Premium, brand-safe inventory will push toward much higher CPMs while mid-tier placements lose ground and low-quality programmatic struggles to maintain value. As local streaming continues to scale for auto dealers, healthcare systems, and retailers, the winners will be the broadcasters that unify linear and streaming with credible, consistent measurement.

Agencies and Brands Reach a Reckoning

In 2026, agencies and brands will face a critical threshold. Outdated research cycles will continue to create an untenable speed gap, pushing brands to require real-time intelligence in RFPs. Agencies without it risk finding themselves competing on price instead of value.

Siloed media planning will continue to break down as brands demand truly unified cross-platform video strategies. Those that build integrated systems, rather than stitching together legacy systems, are likely to be rewarded. Multi-touch attribution will increasingly replace last-click, giving linear and streaming TV long-overdue credit and often driving a double-digit increase in attributed conversions.

But growth brings risk. As programmatic video expands across CTV and FAST, brand safety failures will escalate, raising the likelihood of headline-making incidents that push advertisers toward verified, premium inventory and away from exchanges that can’t guarantee placement quality.

The common thread running through all of these shifts is accountability. Broadcasters must prove their audiences drive outcomes, not just deliver GRPs. Cable networks need to demonstrate value independent of distribution pipes. Streaming platforms must justify their CPMs with verified performance. Agencies must optimize across the entire video ecosystem, and brands need clarity on what is actually working, not assumptions.

The companies that thrive in 2026 will be the ones that embrace measurement transparency instead of resisting it. They’ll prioritize timely, multifaceted intelligence over quarterly, post-hoc reporting. They’ll connect media exposure to real audiences and real outcomes, rather than hiding behind fragmented measurement and legacy metrics.

In 2026, speed, transparency, and proof won’t be differentiators. They’ll be the cost of entry.